Thursday, 19 March 2009

My predictions...

OK, just for fun I am going to make a set of predictions so that in a few years time you can all look back and laugh at how wrong I was.

I predict the the price of Gold, as measured in Chinese Yuan, will rise dramatically then fall again over the next few years and end up lower than it is now. I say measured in Chinese Yuan because I think that will be the worlds most stable currency over the coming years.

I predict that the dollar will lose at least 30% of its value against the Chinese Yuan over the next few years, but the change in rates will be very uneven, there will be a sudden drop over a very short period.

I predict that the average U.S. and Chinese hourly incomes will move dramatically closer together. I think the gap will halve.

I think that the GDP of China will overtake that of the US within 5 years.

I think the tax rates in both the US and UK for the better off will be forced to rise significantly.

I think that the interest rates offered by the US for their government bonds will, at some point, at least double from where they are today.

I predict that the average PE ratio of the companies in the Dow Jones index will fall to about 7ish.

I predict the price of oil will be three times as high in five years time as it is now even when adjusted for inflation.

I predict unemployment in the US and UK will rise to 15%.

I Predict that the contribution to the GDP of the UK of the banking sector will be reduced to less than 20% - even after the recession.

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